Titlebook: Uncertainty Deconstructed; A Guidebook for Deci Bruce Garvey,Dowshan Humzah,Storm Le Roux Book 2022 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The A

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Time-Based Criteriaict the future. This perception may be erroneous. Many forecasting and foresight processes use the past, especially the recent past, as a starting point, for their projections. That being said there is nothing to say that our assessment of the past is free from uncertainty, and more importantly bias

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The Evidence Basealitative and quantitative. History examines the impact of past events. Yet, proximity to an event having occurred in relation to a contemporary standpoint is no guarantee that an objective interpretation can be made. It can be argued that the more recent the event, the less likely researchers will

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Ways of Seeing the Futuremining different types of futures is reviewed. The differences between forecasting and foresight principles are identified and how the use of the disciplines influences strategic planning. The “futures cone” is introduced as a tool to help identify the different forms and interpretations of the futu

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Scenarios: What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them?narios explore the space of uncertainties in defining possible futures whilst forecasts tend to be used more for anticipating timing in relation to specific stimuli such as technology. Two categories, or lenses, of scenarios are introduced—the reactive—where alternative futures are explored based on

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How to Mitigate the Impact of the Behavioural Minefieldigher the level of uncertainty the higher the level individuals and groups rely on their biases and use of heuristics to make decisions. Here we examine a variety of approaches to counteract biases as well as confronting the challenges of digital disinformation, filter bubbles, and social media infl

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