| 书目名称 | Uncertainty Deconstructed |
| 副标题 | A Guidebook for Deci |
| 编辑 | Bruce Garvey,Dowshan Humzah,Storm Le Roux |
| 视频video | |
| 概述 | Provides a process toolkit for practitioners.Reveals what uncertainty really is and how the worst risks associated with uncertainty can be mitigated.Introduces methods, tools and techniques to enhance |
| 丛书名称 | Science, Technology and Innovation Studies |
| 图书封面 |  |
| 描述 | .This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. .This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches pr |
| 出版日期 | Book 2022 |
| 关键词 | Risk and Uncertainty; Reactive Scenarios; Explorative Scenarios; Behavioural Factors; Strategic Foresigh |
| 版次 | 1 |
| doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4 |
| isbn_softcover | 978-3-031-08009-8 |
| isbn_ebook | 978-3-031-08007-4Series ISSN 2570-1509 Series E-ISSN 2570-1517 |
| issn_series | 2570-1509 |
| copyright | The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl |
发表于 2025-3-21 17:47:12
