Titlebook: Scenario Thinking; Preparing Your Organ George Cairns,George Wright Book 2018Latest edition The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s)

实施生效

Creating Robust Strategies and Robust Organizations,apers and magazines were mute about such a possibility before its terrible occurrence, this despite numerous precursor signals throughout the 1990s, including Al Qaeda’s attacks on US Embassies in Africa, its thwarted plan to blow up multiple aircraft in flight over the Pacific, and the previous failed attempt to bomb the World Trade Center.

对手

Building on the Basic Method: Power, Ethics and Critical Scenario Method, issue of concern is situated. The second is a more complex augmentation of the basic method that builds on the stakeholder analysis frameworks from Chap. ., bringing into scenario analysis explicit considerations of issues of power and of the ethics and moral consequences of decision making.

Liability

Scenarios and Decision Analysis,al analysis of the actions of powerful—and less-powerful—stakeholders as they react to particular scenarios in order to secure their own objectives against an unfolding future. Both approaches to quantification give us clear insights into what otherwise would be very complex situations.

间接

The Backwards Logic Method of Constructing Extreme Scenarios and Considering Local Agency in Branchs of impact on the focal issue—often the viability of the focal organization. Recall, also, that the two scenario dimensions are selected from those cluster headings that are judged, by scenario team members, to be situated in the high-impact low-predictability quadrant of the impact/uncertainty matrix.

hemorrhage

悄悄移动

certain

Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?,examples like the Singapore government, Shell Global and the UK National Council for Voluntary Organisations show the value attached to scenarios. In this age of uncertainty surrounding political, social, economic and environmental changes across the world, we see a clear need for all individuals an

Catheter

Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method,nderpin it are fundamental to the augmented approaches that we introduce later, so we advise reading carefully and understanding fully. We illustrate the approach at each stage with examples and suggest that you work through a similar example from your own field as you proceed.

表皮

Incorporating Stakeholders into Scenarios,ectives on the seemingly predetermined elements of the future (in relatively stable nations like Sweden, Singapore and New Zealand, this might be the proportion of the population in the 70+ age bracket over the next decade), (b) views on the critical uncertainties in the future—from the PESTEL frame

蜿蜒而流

Building on the Basic Method: Power, Ethics and Critical Scenario Method,hese is a simple extension of the basic method that is designed to enable you to develop a deeper understanding of the context within which your focal issue of concern is situated. The second is a more complex augmentation of the basic method that builds on the stakeholder analysis frameworks from C