Titlebook: Digressions in Elementary Probability; The Unexpected in Me Edward Beltrami Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), unde

CODA

Jill Q. Klausner,David C. Chen MDI’ll introduce the topic through some informal arguments and then go on to a formal proof. An alternate take will appear in the section on Restricted Choice using Bayes Theorem. In the subsequent discussion I follow the reasoning and even some of the wording in the striking paper by Miller and Sanjurjo [5] rather closely.

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In the previous section we saw that a random sample of per-capita cancer rates by county can exhibit considerable variation depending on sample size.

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Tsukemono — die Kunst des EinlegensMedical screenings can be a source of well intentioned but seriously flawed judgements by doctors due to a cognitive failure in assessing conditional data. I provide a striking example here concerning a common procedure to screen for colon cancer in which, as will be seen, Bayes Theorem lurks in the background.

hypertension

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-1429-1The spooky quality of coincidences rarely fails to fascinate and confound people who experience them. What I hope to show is that many, perhaps most, coincidences are less amazing than they first appear to be.

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Christopher P. McKay,Rafael Navarro-GonzálezThis section and the one that follows are a bit more technical and makes use of continuous random variables unlike the rest of this book.

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Success Runs in Bernoulli Trials,A streak of 76 consecutive heads occur in a coin tossing game. The loser remarks that . (from the play . [Tom Stoppard, 1967]).

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A Subtle Bias,I’ll introduce the topic through some informal arguments and then go on to a formal proof. An alternate take will appear in the section on Restricted Choice using Bayes Theorem. In the subsequent discussion I follow the reasoning and even some of the wording in the striking paper by Miller and Sanjurjo [5] rather closely.