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Titlebook: Dynamic Demographic Analysis; Robert Schoen Book 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 Age-period-cohort analyses.Geogra

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Modeling the Dynamics of an HIV Epidemicine up through 2003. We also generate forecasts of HIV prevalence for 2007 and 2011, and compare them to nationally representative data from these years. Our assessment of the predictive performance of the approaches suggests that additional information is needed to produce accurate forecasts of sex
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Revisiting Mortality Deceleration Patterns in a Gamma-Gompertz-Makeham Frameworke evolution of .. over time. Finally, model-based LARs appear to be consistent with point . of the “heterogeneity hypothesis” (Horiuchi and Wilmoth, J Gerontol Biol Sci 52A(1), B67–B77, 1997): mortality deceleration, due to selection effects, should shift to older ages as the level of total adult mo
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Demographic Consequences of Barker Frailty of adult mortality in the background mortality pattern. We argue that Barker frailty should be pervasive in low-to-middle income populations, e.g. those that experienced a mortality decline fueled largely by post-1950 medical innovations that reduced the load and lethality of infectious and parasit
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Mortality Crossovers from Dynamic Subpopulation Reordering rank order of subpopulation mortalities, regardless of subpopulation shares. The latter possibility has no analogue in the standard, unidimensional model. Our results therefore identify a new mechanism by which mortality selection can create mortality crossovers.
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Exploring Stable Population Concepts from the Perspective of Cohort Change Ratios: Estimating the Ti= .001, and S = .0005). The regression-based analysis reveals that the initial conditions as defined by the initial Stability Index along with fertility and migration play a role in determining time to stability up until the quasi-stable point of . = .0005 is reached. After this point, the initial c
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halfway-age for females and males at 41.8 and 39.5 in 2010, for cohorts born in 2010 this might be as high as 10 years more. The stage of midlife has always been considered an important step in the life of human beings. However, there is no agreement on which is the age or age-range that represents
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