Titlebook: Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices; Theory and Evidence Annalisa Cristini Book 1999 Annalisa Cristini 1999 employment.macroeconomic

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978-1-349-14974-2Annalisa Cristini 1999

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Estimations and Simulations,The model is estimated by Three Stages Least Squares adopting the ‘general to specific’ methodology according to which the final parsimonious estimate is obtained from an initial unrestricted over-parametrized system (Hendry, 1989; Hendry and Richard, 1983).

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Introduction,ng: both variables are roughly constant around the mean until 1972; thereafter they undergo two notable upward jumps in 1973 and again 1979 and finally fall in 1985–86. Between 1954 and 1991 the correlation index is as high as 0.94.

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The Outline of the Theory,the previous chapter indicate that these sharp variations can be related and somehow traced back to the developments of three pivotal variables: the OECD rate of unemployment, the primary commodity price index and the real rate of interest.

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Details of the Model,he LDC region is based on an aggregate demand function; however the evolution of the LDC foreign debt over time, which contributes to the performance of the international financial market and the endogenization of the primary commodity market, enhance the representativeness of the Southern block.

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Conclusions,fact, the basic consideration that the OECD countries spawn most of the demand for primaries, substantiated the idea that the causal relationship between commodity prices and the OECD economy runs both ways and that an explanation, to be exhaustive, must explicitly account for this fact.

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