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Titlebook: Uncertainty; The Soul of Modeling William Briggs Textbook 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 probability.statistics.ph

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发表于 2025-3-21 17:21:27 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
书目名称Uncertainty
副标题The Soul of Modeling
编辑William Briggs
视频video
概述Presents a complete argument showing why probability should be treated as a part of logic.Broadens understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods, proposing a Third Way of modeling.Proposes tha
图书封面Titlebook: Uncertainty; The Soul of Modeling William Briggs Textbook 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 probability.statistics.ph
描述This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance."  .The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models.  .Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the
出版日期Textbook 2016
关键词probability; statistics; philosophy; cause; evidence; models; modeling; epistemology; philosophy of uncertai
版次1
doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39756-6
isbn_softcover978-3-319-81958-7
isbn_ebook978-3-319-39756-6
copyrightSpringer International Publishing Switzerland 2016
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发表于 2025-3-21 20:58:43 | 显示全部楼层
Logic, Syllogistic is preferred over symbolic logic for its ease of understanding; syllogisms are an ideal way of grouping evidence. The fundamental principles of logic ultimately are not formal in a sense to be defined. Finally, not all fallacies are what they seem.
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Truth, Argument, Realism, skepticism about truth, reality, or universals is self-refuting. There are two kinds of truth: ontological and epistemological, comprising existence and our understanding of existence. Tremendous disservice has been done by ignoring this distinction. There are two modes of truth: necessary and loca
发表于 2025-3-22 18:53:18 | 显示全部楼层
Logic,ositions, between premises and conclusion, that is. So too is probability, which is the continuation, fullness, or completion of logic. All arguments use language, and therefore the terms, definitions, and grammar of language are part of the tacit premises in every argument. It is well to bring thes
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What Probability Is,t a real or physical thing: it does not exist, it is not ontological. It cannot be measured with any apparatus, like mass or energy can. Like logic, probability is a measure of certainty of some proposition in relation to given or assumed premises—and only on these, and no other, premises, and this
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What Probability Is Not,is not somehow buried deep in the folds of the object waiting to be measured by some sophisticated apparatus. Logic is the relation between propositions, and these relations are not physical. A building can be twice as high as another building; the “twice” is the relation, but what exists physically
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