Titlebook: Smallpox: When Should Routine Vaccination Be Discontinued?; James C. Frauenthal Textbook 1981 Education Development Center, Inc. 1981 Math

eucalyptus

nitric-oxide

The Epidemic Initiation Model,ve arrives unnoticed and unknowingly transmits the disease to others; hence initially the epidemic grows out of control. Before too long, however, one or another of the infected individuals shows symptoms and is diagnosed as a carrier of smallpox. Once the disease is discovered, the initial phase of

很是迷惑

Morphine

The Optimal Vaccination Policy,vel of vaccine-induced immunity which minimizes the average number of deaths that would occur between the ends of two successive epidemics. This amounts to choosing the level of susceptibility s in a population so that the average number of deaths which occur during one (long) period when there is n

Osteoporosis

Calibrating the Model,ocedures should be employed. However, since the mathematical model is at best approximate, rough estimates are apt to be adequate. The results should permit authorities to decide whether the model implies that vaccination should unequivocally be discontinued (s=1), or enthusiastically pursued (s=0),

陪审团每个人

LEVY

Textbook 1981de a solid intro­ duction to calculus and one semester of probability. Although differential equations are employed, these are all linear, constant coefficient, ordinary differential equa­ tions which are solved either by separation of variables or by introduction of an integrating factor. These tec

cogitate

The History of Smallpox Vaccination, virus to the skin. If variolation was unsuccessful, the innoculated individual might contract a severe, disfiguring case of smallpox and even die, or might be left with no added immunity from the innoculation. At best, variolation was a risky way to prevent smallpox, but it was the only way.

maverick

The Pre-Epidemic Model,on will arrive depends on the worldwide incidence of smallpox and the level of international travel to regions where the disease is endemic. These rates (and hence α) are determined outside the present mathematical model and are treated here as constants..

多嘴

The Epidemic Subsidence Model,ho contract smallpox before the epidemic runs its course. Two versions of the epidemic subsidence model will be presented. Although these models are formally very different, they lead to identical results. It is instructive to see both as they graphically demonstrate that there is not a single “right way” to formulate the mathematical model.