| 书目名称 | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks | | 副标题 | The Path from Single | | 编辑 | Craig E. Taylor | | 视频video | | | 概述 | Sheds light on many innovative ideas and pragmatic approaches for tackling natural and man-made mega-risk issues.Lays the framework from both a philosophical and pragmatic perspective as to why diverg | | 图书封面 |  | | 描述 | .This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.. | | 出版日期 | Book 2015 | | 关键词 | Decision analysis; Hazard modeling; Natural disasters; Risk assessment; Risk strategies | | 版次 | 1 | | doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 | | isbn_softcover | 978-3-319-36907-5 | | isbn_ebook | 978-3-319-19413-4 | | copyright | Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 |
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发表于 2025-3-21 18:43:07
