Titlebook: Rethinking Risk in National Security; Lessons of the Finan Michael J. Mazarr Book 2016 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

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Book 2016d not cure skewed incentives, cognitive biases, groupthink, and a dozen other human factors that led companies to take excessive risk. By embracing risk management, the national security enterprise may be turning to a discipline just as it has been discredited.

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Defining Risk). The federal statute mandating the QDR states that it must be conducted “in consultation with” the Chairman, and requires that the Chairman’s office produce a formal assessment. Over time, the Chairman’s comment has come to focus on the risks embodied in and taken by the defense strategy laid out in the QDR.

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Principles of Effective Risk Managementmany of the most common cognitive and framing errors push decision-makers toward urgent, nonconsequentialist thinking. Developing a single coherent approach to risk, and focusing risk analysis on outcomes, are the first steps toward the effective employment of risk as a component of a larger strategy process.

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Managing Uncertaintylicated mosaic without clear implications for the size, structure, or technology of a modern military. It is a context of profound ambiguity whose future is less predictable than ever, in which events across the world are connected in denser and more explosive ways.

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The Swans to Worry About Are Gray its possibility.”. He goes on to claim that such events are the engines of history. “A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world,” he argues. Social life “is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks.”