Titlebook: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting; Qingyun Duan,Florian Pappenberger,John C. Schaake Reference work 2019 Springer-Verla

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Hydrological Predictability, Scales, and Uncertainty Issues such as flood and drought that disrupts food supplies and can cause havoc to day-to-day operations. Many of these extreme events have occurred in recent years including large droughts and extreme floods in many parts of the world. The looming threat of climate change has the additional potential to

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Overview of Weather and Climate Systemsconstituent processes, as well as the basis for and the limits of their predictability, some important concepts are reviewed, including determinism, chaotic error growth, and linear as well as nonlinear perturbation dynamics. It is shown that weather is predictable but only for finite times. Initial

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Numerical Weather Prediction Basics: Models, Numerical Methods, and Data Assimilationdamental principles of numerical weather prediction, including the numerical framework of models, numerical methods, physical parameterization, and data assimilation. Historical revolution, the recent development, and future direction are introduced and discussed.

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Ensemble Methods for Meteorological Predictionstions and models. Ensemble forecasting is a dynamical approach to quantify the predictability of weather, climate, and water forecasts. This chapter introduces various methods to create an ensemble of forecasts based on three aspects: perturbing initial conditions (IC), perturbing a model, and build

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Major Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and the Future of EPS e.g., in the form of a range of forecast scenarii or of probabilities of occurrence of weather events. Although there is an overall agreement on the main objectives of ensemble-based, probabilistic prediction, different methods have been followed to develop ensemble systems. In this chapter, we wil

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Black-Box Hydrological ModelsThey include antecedent precipitation index (API) models, regression models, time series models, artificial neural network (ANN) models, fuzzy logic models, and frequency analysis models. The purpose of this chapter is neither to provide a complete discussion of the theory of hydrological systems no