| 书目名称 | Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View |
| 编辑 | Jakub Bijak |
| 视频video | |
| 概述 | A lens to look through into the future of international migration in Europe A migration forecaster’s toolkit, applying expert knowledge to account for uncertainty An honest account of the limits of pr |
| 丛书名称 | The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis |
| 图书封面 |  |
| 描述 | International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed.The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications. |
| 出版日期 | Book 2011 |
| 关键词 | Bayesian; Demography; Gibbs sampling; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Migration; Migration forecasting; Migratio |
| 版次 | 1 |
| doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0 |
| isbn_softcover | 978-94-007-3395-4 |
| isbn_ebook | 978-90-481-8897-0Series ISSN 1877-2560 Series E-ISSN 2215-1990 |
| issn_series | 1877-2560 |
| copyright | Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
发表于 2025-3-21 17:06:06
