Titlebook: Expert Judgment and Expert Systems; Jeryl L. Mumpower (Associate Professor),Ortwin Ren Conference proceedings 1987 Springer-Verlag Berlin

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Untersuchung eines Venturi-Messers,y as an argument for selling their product. Expert systems have become a symbol in our modern society, yet most members of this society have little idea of the reality behind the symbol. A firm will use “Expert Systems” to indicate the outstanding character of its ability to keep pace in the modern

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Expert Judgment and Expert Systems978-3-642-86679-1Series ISSN 0258-1248

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Principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Processve reason [35]; Freud [10] as secondary versus primary process thinking; and Hobbes [14] as thought with or without “designe.” More recently the division has been referred to as directed versus autistic thinking [4] and operant versus respondent thought [16]. The terms Varendinck [33] uses for the d

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Knowledge Systems, Expert Systems, and Risk Communicationtional difficulties. Government officials, industry executives, and scientific experts often complain that laypeople do not understand technical risk information. Individual citizens and representatives of public groups are often equally frustrated, perceiving government and industry officials to be

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Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Is Probability Epistemologically and Heuristically Adequate?t, hitherto, found standard probabilistic techniques very appealing for use in rule-based, expert systems. Among the many alternative numerical schemes for quantifying uncertainty that have been developed are the Certainty Factors used in Mycin (Shortliffe & Buchanan, 1975) and its descendants, Fuzz

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The Use of Causal Knowledge for Inferential Reasoninghold in 25 years and which of these services will be supplied by state and industry. We ask social science experts to predict the effects of such techniques and services. While most expect a growth in these techniques and services, they disagree about their effects on social contacts, creativity amo