Titlebook: Developments in Demographic Forecasting; Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 20

Reclaim

信条

火花

gospel

连累

Encumber

Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts,ly used cohort-component model, the inputs of the forecasting procedures are the fertility and mortality age schedules along with the distribution of migrants by age. Age schedules and distributions are derived from summary indicators, such as total fertility rates, male and female life expectancy a

installment

FER

Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Populapects Revisions. This chapter questions this assumption of “weak convergence” comparing actual data with the forecasted fertility, mortality, and migration trends computed by UN over the last half century. The “weak convergence” during 1985–2015 is not confirmed in countries that had a Total Fertili

粗糙

,Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes, approach for dynamic modeling of proportionate age–specific fertility rates via skewed processes. The model assumes a skew–normal distribution for the age at the moment of childbirth, while allowing the location and the skewness parameters to evolve in time via Gaussian processes priors. Posterior