Titlebook: Developments in Demographic Forecasting; Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 20

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Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions,be useful for projection makers looking to adopt a formal approach to eliciting expert judgments, or for producing probabilistic projections, where it is necessary to obtain plausible estimates of uncertainty for components of population growth.

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Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Populaty Rate below 2.5 children per woman before 1985. Moreover, in the period 2000–2015 the differences between groups of homogeneous countries actually increase. Further research can identify new regularities in order to predict future trends more accurately.

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,Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes,inference is performed via Monte Carlo methods, leveraging results on unified skew–normal distributions. The proposed approach is illustrated on Italian age–specific fertility rates from 1991 to 2014, providing forecasts until 2030.

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Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020omponent emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addit

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Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters..

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Diabetes Mellitus Prevention and Treatmentulthood and Senescence, respectively. We then model the evolution of each component-specific death density with a relational model that associates a time-invariant standard to a series of observed distributions by means of a transformation of the age axis. Our approach allows us to capture mortality

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Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and Stroked? Second, we compare the forecast performance of 11 models for Danish females and males and for period and cohort data. Finally, we assess the implications of the various forecasts for Danish society, and, in particular, their implications for future lifespan variability and age at retirement.

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1877-2560 r demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters..978-3-030-42474-9978-3-030-42472-5Series ISSN 1877-2560 Series E-ISSN 2215-1990