Titlebook: Clear Thinking; Structured Analytic Randolph H. Pherson,Ole Donner,Oliver Gnad Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s),

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978-3-031-48768-2The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl

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2731-9776 p instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display..978-3-031-48768-2978-3-031-48766-8Series ISSN 2731-9776 Series E-ISSN 2731-9784

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Setting the Stage,unately, mere knowledge of errors in thinking and judgment does not protect us from avoiding them: structured techniques provide the basic materials for effective decision making in all analytic domains – private, business, and government – and at all levels – tactical, operational, and strategic. B

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Understanding How We Think: System 1 and System 2,eloped during evolution and contributed to the survival of our species, especially at the beginning of human development. System 2 “kicks in” when we encounter a complex calculation or a complex analysis problem and must think deliberately about what to do. System 1 thinking is more susceptible to c

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Conceptualizing Your Topic,bes the various categories of analysis they are seeking. A second question to address is: What are the . I must understand and answer and what are the building-block questions that underlie the reason for interest in my topic. When formulating the essential and fundamental questions that you should

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Blackout in Berlin!, asked the task force to determine how a major blackout occurred that had significant impact on Germany – and to recommend what to do about it. The case study showcases how SATs (Key Assumptions Check, Starbursting, Mind Mapping, Cluster Brainstorming, Multiple Hypotheses Generation, and the Inconsi

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Terror in Stockholm,rder was indeed a ‘John F. Kennedy moment.’ The crime was never solved. In June 2020, lead prosecutor Krister Petersson closed the cold case – and gave only one clue to the most plausible perpetrator: Stig Engström, the infamous ‘Skandia man’. Over the course of more than three decades, new teams of

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