Titlebook: An Econometric Model of the US Economy; Structural Analysis John J. Heim Book 2017 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 en

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Real GDP Determination Function ( “IS” Curve) Coefficients Aggregated from Parameter Estimates ObtaiThis chapter takes consumption and investment equations from Chapters 4–6 and uses their coefficients to calculate the Keynesian “IS” curve. This chapter model fits several decades of data well, and better than the Chapter 7 model.

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MethodologyThis chapter develops a model which obtains a very good fit to the data for the past 50 years when using just the Taylor rule variables (unemployment and inflation). It tests to see if government deficits, by causing crowd out, raise interest rates, and whether the money supply has an effect on interest rates.

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Determinants of Government ReceiptsA model of savings was developed and tested; the three key variables found to affect government receipts were income, unemployment, and inflation levels.

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Capacity Of The Model To Explain Behavior Of The Macroeconomy Beyond The Period Used To Estimate TheTests were undertaken of how well the GDP, consumption, and investment models described conditions during the decade after the models had been developed. As a percent of GDP, the average error of estimate was 0.5% for GDP and consumption, 1.5% for exports, and 3.4% for investment.

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