书目名称 | Understanding the Dynamics of Nuclear Power and the Reduction of CO2 Emissions | 副标题 | A System Dynamics Ap | 编辑 | Hassan Qudrat-Ullah | 视频video | http://file.papertrans.cn/942/941791/941791.mp4 | 概述 | Provides an intensive overview of CO2 emissions reducing energy policies and mechanisms.Presents a unique dynamic model representing nuclear power-based energy supply mix as a “solution model”.Evaluat | 图书封面 |  | 描述 | .This books explains a strategy that a country can meet its CO2 emission reduction targets (e.g., as are in Paris Agreement) with a dominant share of nuclear power with a balanced energy supply mix. The book starts with an introduction to the subject of energy policy, mechanisms, and CO2 emissions, and the complexity of the CO2 reduction goal. It introduces the system dynamics approach as a solution modeling approach for dealing with the complexity of CO2 reducing policies and mechanisms. The book presents the dynamic model and its key parameters and then elaborates the structural and behavioral validity of the dynamic model...The book gives an intensive review to do that comparative analysis involving China, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Pakistan. The last half of the book focuses on the case in Pakistan. The author reviews Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and other key sources from Pakistan’s Ministry of Energy and related institutions. Using Pakistan’scase data, the author applies the system dynamics modeling approach whereby a dynamic model, capable of representing the important interactions among various sectors of the electricity supply sector of Pakista | 出版日期 | Book 2022 | 关键词 | energy policy; CO2 reduction goal; nature of CO2 emissions; CO2 reducing scenarios development; greenhou | 版次 | 1 | doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04341-3 | isbn_softcover | 978-3-031-04343-7 | isbn_ebook | 978-3-031-04341-3 | copyright | The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl |
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Front Matter |
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Abstract
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,Energy Policies, Mechanisms, and CO2 Emissions, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
The objective of this book project is to seek an “understanding of the complex dynamics of energy policy, nuclear power, and electricity related to CO. emissions.” The outcome is to contribute to the ongoing global efforts toward the mitigation of climate change and global warming. The author selected an energetic developing country, Pakistan as a case study. Pakistan encompasses the key assets and challenges inherent in a growing economy with increasing population, increasing electricity demand, and rising CO. emission and therefore is an appropriate microcosm for such a case study. The author will leverage Pakistan’s current electricity demand–supply status and describe the design, construction, validation, and application of a dynamic model by drawing on Pakistan’s case data. This chapter provides an overview of Pakistan’s power sector demand–supply dynamics, emission, CO. reduction policies and mechanisms, and a systematic comparative overview of the PIS region (i.e., Pakistan, India, and Saudi Arabia) in terms of its power sector emissions, electricity supply mix, and nuclear power plants and plans.
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,Understanding the Nature of CO2 Emissions Reduction Task, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Providing cleaner energy, reducing carbon dioxide (CO.) emissions, and achieving a low-carbon economy are the sought-after goals for energy policymakers across the globe. However, the nature of the CO. emissions reduction task is complex at best. While electricity generation is often a technical task, the CO. reduction task has social (e.g., reliable access relates to accessibility and well-being issues), economic (e.g., electricity prices relates to affordability aspect) and environmental (e.g., some healthcare issues directly relate to environmental emissions including CO. emissions) dimensions. These socioeconomic and environmental aspects of electricity-related CO2 emissions and the dynamic nature of interaction among them add to the complexity of the CO. emission reduction task. We argue that a dynamic modeling-based analysis that accounts for these complexity factors and provides a systematic uncovering of the causal nature of interactions among the variables of an energy system can provide useful policy insights to the decision-makers in the energy policy domain to effectively manage the CO. emission reduction task.
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,Energy Policy Instruments for the Promotion of Renewable and Clean Energy, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Policy instruments are means to achieve the objectives of an energy policy. In the context of CO. emissions reduction targets and having a low carbon economy, the role of policy instruments in the development and deployment of renewable and clean energy technologies is critical. In general, five major instruments are often used in combinations: (i) quantity or quota-based instruments, (ii) pricing or tariffs-based instruments, (iii) regulations and standards-instruments, (iv) public procurement-based instruments, and (v) auctions-based instruments. Primarily quota-based and tariffs-based instruments are the most popular instruments in practice. The key success factors for quota-based renewable energy policy are (i) the purchase obligation should be durable and increase with the increased production, (ii) meeting the targets of renewable energy policy should be the focus of the contract, (iii) effective enforcement is needed, (iv) non-compliance penalties should be set higher than compliance cost, (v) consistent monitoring of compliance is required. On the other hand, when it comes to the design of pricing-based policy instruments, Feed-In-Tariff (FIT)-based renewable energy policie
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,Simulation and Modeling in Service of Energy Systems, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Climate change and increasing global concerns about environmental emissions pose challenges for energy policymakers. Understanding the complex and dynamic nature of energy supply and demand systems is an essential prerequisite for effective policy decisions. In particular, meeting the targets of the reduction of CO. emissions and achieving a low-carbon economy requires an integrated system-wide assessment of existing energy policies. Although, prior studies, utilizing various modeling and simulation methods and approaches, have been applied to explore the role of non-thermal power in the reduction of CO. emissions in the PIS region, the long-term impact of increased nuclear generation in CO. emissions reduction and achieving a low carbon economy of Pakistan still needs to be investigated.
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,Modeling Methodology for Energy Policy, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
In the context of ongoing challenges of climate change and global warming, the methodological limitations, and constraints of the traditional modeling approaches including econometric, statistical, optimization, and input-out models and to provide an integrated modeling approach capable of representation of the dynamics of energy, economy, and the environment, it is argued that system dynamics modeling approach, due to its ability to link the micro-level decision making with macro-level outcomes, is a viable alternative. The development of a system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is described sector-by-sector. The key modifications, modeling assumptions, and parametric specifications of MDESRAP are explicitly described in this chapter.
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,Calibration, Initialization, and Validation of the Simulation Model, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Decision makers in complex, dynamic tasks such as energy system management and policymaking extensively use modeling and simulation-based decisional aids. The validity of the underlying simulation model is an essential prerequisite of any use of these models. Our simulation model, MDESRAP is no exception. This chapter provides details about how MDESRAP was calibrated based on case data, how it was initialized, and how it was subjected to a battery of both structural and behavioral validity tests and procedures. Modeling and simulation community in general and system dynamics and agent-based modelers is expected to avail these test to increase the confidence in and appeal of their models to the potential users.
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,Development and Evaluation of CO2 Reducing Scenarios, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Energy policymakers across the world are striving to provide reliable, affordable, and cleaner energy to their people and economies. Pakistan, a developing nation, has also enacted several policies and initiatives to achieve these objectives. In this context, in this chapter, we develop and evaluate three energy policy scenarios: (i) existing energy policy incentives and initiatives, (ii) indigenous-resource intensive and renewable focused alternate, and (iii) nuclear power dominant option for Pakistan. Utilizing our validated dynamic model, MDESRAP, in the scenario planning approach, we present some viable alternative courses of action for the energy policymakers in Pakistan to meet reduction targets for electricity-related CO. emissions and move toward a low-carbon economic regime. Given the dominance of thermal generation for the countries of the PIS region, new and additional capacity of nuclear power is recommended to meet their PA-based pledges about the reduction of CO..
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,Finale: Conclusions and Future Research Directions, |
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah |
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Abstract
Energy decisions are pervasive. Energy policymakers of all countries and regions are striving to achieve a balance between “the provision of an adequate supply of electricity” and “reduction of CO. emissions” to meet the goal of having reliable, affordable, and cleaner production of electricity. In the case of Pakistan, we have assessed its current energy policy in terms of having an adequate and reliable, affordable, and cleaner supply of electricity. To what extent does the existing policy enable Pakistan to meet its PA-based pledged reduction in CO. emissions and what is the best electricity supply mix to move toward a low-carbon economy. We undertook this book project to address these questions and to enhance systematically our understanding of the general process by which renewable and nuclear power’s role in reducing CO. emissions can explain the making of the desired energy policies. This chapter concludes this book by presenting some major conclusions, key insights, and future research directions.
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