书目名称 | Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making | 副标题 | Analysis, Categoriza | 编辑 | Richard J. Arend | 视频video | http://file.papertrans.cn/942/941151/941151.mp4 | 概述 | Offers a critical assessment of the current literature, pointing out mistakes in measures and prescriptions.Offers a new, up-to-date comprehensive and appropriately-structured typology of uncertaintie | 图书封面 |  | 描述 | .Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI..It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, byoffering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply | 出版日期 | Book 2024 | 关键词 | ambiguity; risk; probability; strategy; optimization; typology; philosophy of science; ontology; truth; shock | 版次 | 1 | doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48553-4 | isbn_softcover | 978-3-031-48555-8 | isbn_ebook | 978-3-031-48553-4 | copyright | The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl |
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Front Matter |
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Abstract
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, of This Book on Strategic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, |
Richard J. Arend |
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Abstract
Explains how and why uncertainty is everything. Argues that because uncertainty is ubiquitous—affecting every decision—a rational way of approaching it is needed. Given the avoidance of uncertainty in the past—because it entails the non-optimizability of decisions—and due to the increased effects of it in the present (as seen in devastating shocks of the economic and environmental kind), it is worth delving further into for the future. That is the basis for this book and why it is needed now. Explains and argues for the approach taken—in using decision-making as the structure for analysis, in applying an objective reality perspective, and in the definitions and delineations proposed. Previews some big philosophical questions, quoting from previous analyses of uncertainty. Presents a plan for the rest of the book.
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, over Uncertainty in Decision-Making, |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains why and how significant confusion over uncertainty exists, including that which is relevant to decision-making, and why that is important. Argues that for science to progress, all fields must converge on one set of well-defined concepts about uncertainty (that relate to decision-making). Provides a path forward, one that addresses the current sources of confusion.
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, of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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, of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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, of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains the general impacts of uncertainty on the world, at three levels. Describes the impacts on decision-makers and their relevant stakeholders, focusing on the immediate outcomes. Describes the impacts in terms of reacting to uncertainty in decisions. Describes the impacts on increasing our understanding of uncertainty as a ubiquitous phenomenon. Argues that to best allocate resources to address uncertainty, one needs an appreciation of the extent of what it does.
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, of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains the main harms that uncertainty can do. Explains which uncertainties are more likely to produce those effects and what causes them. Describes the more likely contexts and reactions that involve harms. Argues that to make good decisions about uncertainty, a reasonable knowledge of the downsides is necessary.
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, of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains the main benefits that uncertainty can produce, including several very important ones for humanity. Explains how uncertainty acts as a signal of potential (and theoretical) benefits. Describes real rewards from uncertainties and the conditions conducive for them, in addition to which entities are more likely to enjoy them. Argues, like Knight (1921) and others have, that uncertainty is important for the progress of humankind overall, and for each human as well; as such, it deserves greater attention in our choices, and in our policies.
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, Uncertainty (in Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Given the potential costs and benefits of uncertainty, argues for the possibility of an ‘optimal amount’ of uncertainty (for a given purpose). Explains when and for whom this can be achieved. Describes how this can be made possible.
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, of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Applies the logic of ‘in order to (try to) manage something, first it must be measured’. Argues the importance of measuring the various characteristics and impacts of uncertainty. Describes approaches, limits, and both conceptual and practical measures.
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, of Uncertainty, |
Richard J. Arend |
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Argues that any one uncertainty may involve multiple dimensions—i.e., it may be able to affect a decision in more than one significant way. So, to be more effective, approaches to making decisions involving uncertainty must consider more than one dimension. Explains those dimensions and their grounds. Describes how multi-dimensionality affects how uncertainty is, and can be, better addressed.
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,Uncertainty’s Connections to , |
Richard J. Arend |
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Considers the argument made by Knight (.) that entrepreneurial activity is existentially dependent on uncertainty. Argues for the ways in which the connection exists. Explains the drivers and context of the connection. Argues that, for entrepreneurship to flourish, uncertainty must be understood and managed (as best as it can be) in entrepreneurial decision-making.
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,Uncertainty’s Connections to , |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains and argues for the ways in which uncertainty connects to strategy. Describes the strategic decisions, the drivers, and the contexts where uncertainties matter. Suggests directions for managing the connection to uncertainty—both offensively and defensively—in competitive and cooperative arenas. Argues that the most important decisions—those involving the greatest stakes regarding performance—are the strategic ones and should have priority in any analysis of uncertainty.
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,Uncertainty’s Connections to , |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains and argues for the ways in which uncertainty connects to the creativity and its outlets (and its end-products). Describes the main connections and their drivers. Argues that to better understand invention and innovation, understanding uncertainty is paramount.
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,Uncertainty’s Connections to , |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains and argues for the ways in which uncertainty connects to the spiritual. Describes the main connections and drivers. Argues that to better understand the uncertainty’s role in history, and its deeper meaning to a large proportion of the world’s current population, it is important to understand the connection to religion.
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,Uncertainty’s Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology, and Evolution, |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains and argues for the ways in which uncertainty connects to curiosity, the brain, and the foundational theory of why we exist as thinking, inquisitive beings. Describes the drivers of these connections and the philosophical implications. Argues that understanding ‘why we decide’, and we why enjoy that capability to decide, matters for the appreciation of the larger role of uncertainty.
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,Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty, |
Richard J. Arend |
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Explains why it has taken so long to confront uncertainty in a comprehensive way. Identifies the failures to engage fully with uncertainty. Describes the drivers of those failures in the business of science. Argues that probability-based approaches do not apply to uncertainty. Considers alternatives. Argues that new thinking is required when decisions are non-optimizable, thinking that struggles to get published in (social science/business) academic journals.
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, of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Argues that all past typologies are flawed, if not wholly wrong. Explains and argues a new primary typology of uncertainty based on treatability. Explains and argues a new (supplementary) secondary typology based on the elements of the decision-making process. Describes a (supplementary) tertiary typology based on a 5W1H perspective.
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, to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Argues that no general approach to uncertainty exists. Argues that any legitimate approaches must be specific, firstly, to the primary type of uncertainty at the heart of the decision problem. Explains that most of the (especially recently-published) prescriptions for dealing with uncertainty (even when that term is properly defined) are wrong and potentially dangerous. Explains the appropriate treatments for the treatable uncertainties. Describes the approaches that can be used to alter the problem for the untreatable uncertainties. Analyzes the main processing issues for dealing with uncertainty. Explains why and when to add uncertainty to decisions.
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, of the Analysis of Uncertainty (as Everything), |
Richard J. Arend |
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Summarizes the book (so far), and its main arguments. Describes the main implications of the analyses. Speaks to several avenues for future work on uncertainty. Offers several (almost) final thoughts about the phenomenon of decision-making under uncertainty and its ‘everythingness’.
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