Titlebook: Uncertainty and Risk; Mental, Formal, Expe Mohammed Abdellaoui,R. Duncan Luce,Bertrand Munier Book 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2

Commodious

A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferencesmparison for estimates in empirical investigations. The measurement theoretic background and a procedure for teaching preferences are described in detail. Data from two experiments provide evidence that accurate numerical utility values can be induced with tasks that require only qualitative judgments but do not reveal any numerical information.

STENT

Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statisticsis tree, and we show that any finitely additive probability measure on this field will also be countably additive. Hence when considering the foundations of Bayesian statistics we may as well assume countable additivity over a .-field of events.

notification

Ergots

Introductiont no probability was available, as opposed to the case of risk. What Knight meant might have been sensibly different: Was not uncertainty the case where probability could not be defined with precision, where there was no consensus measure? In the 1920s, such an imprecision was often sufficient to ma

Autobiography

Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics possibilities facing such an observer by a tree with only finitely many arcs leaving each node. There is a natural field of events associated with this tree, and we show that any finitely additive probability measure on this field will also be countably additive. Hence when considering the foundati

国家明智

On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertaintyinty propagation exercise in the practice. We first analyze the meaning of uncertainty propagation from a subjective decision-making point of view. We show that, in order to quantify uncertainty, one has to resort to the distribution of the expected utility (.) originated from parameter uncertainty.

定点

Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerationseference for diversification obtain for both high and low aspiration levels if the similarity function is convex in the Euclidean distance. However, a decision-maker with a concave similarity function and relatively high aspiration level will fail to choose diversified acts, even if his utility func

assail

Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuationrenz curves. Our experimental design consists of two treatments: an income distribution treatment and a lottery treatment. Both treatments were conducted in Italy and Spain. In each treatment, subjects were asked to judge ten multiple-outcome lotteries or ten .-dimensional income distributions, resp

禁止,切断

A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discountingic discounting. Subjects are asked to choose between an earlier or later payoff in series of forty choice questions. Each question consists of a pair of monetary amounts determined by compounding a given base amount at a constant rate per period. Two bases (8 and 20 dollars), three compounding rates

Unsaturated-Fat