Titlebook: Systemic Transitions; Past, Present, and F William R. Thompson Book 2009 William R. Thompson 2009 Governance.hegemony.international organiz

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Implications of Asia’s Rise to Global Status associated with severe conflict. Will history repeat itself? What can be done? This chapter lays out some of the major anticipated events, provides a formal structure that accounts for potential conflict and cooperation centering on the rising Asian nations, and assesses the long-term implications of these new interactions.

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Cities in Transitions and Transformations: Exploring a Jacobsean Approach to Macro-Social Change powerhouse, possibly China, as world hegemon. Third, globalization represents the initial indications of demise of the modern world-system; it could be heralding a new social logic, a materialist postmodern.

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Book 2009when China might succeed the United States as the lead state in the world system. These are interesting questions, albeit ones that are not likely to be answered in the immediate future. An alternative focus examines instead periods of systemic transition - eras in which it is conceivable that a new

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Introduction: How Might We Know That a Systemic Transition Is Underway? Clues for the Twenty-First Cwhen China might succeed the United States as the lead state in the world system. These are interesting questions, albeit ones that are not likely to be answered in the most immediate future. An alternative focus examines instead periods of systemic transition—eras in which, among other things, it i

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Relative Decline: Why Does It Induce War or Sustain Peace?, and long cycles have tried to show the consequences of these changes at the unit, dyadic and systemic levels of analysis (e.g., Kennedy 1987; Modelski 1987; Organski 1958). These changes, whether ongoing or anticipated, have been invoked to account for the rise and fall of great powers, the occurr

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Structural Preludes to Systemic Transition since 1494sition to a new system leader would loom much larger than they have to date in this century. Yet, if forced to choose between Middle Eastern turmoil and the potential for systemic transition as the central question of twenty-first century international relations, one would have to side with the long

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Falling Down: An Empirical Test of Dynamic Differentials Theory 1500–1999international relations must address whether impending transitions will be peaceful, conflictual or even nonexistent (Rennstich 2004). The historical result has varied little—most systemic transitions have ended in warfare. Nonetheless, it is worth investigating why transitions have often led to war

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Whether and How Global Leadership Transitions Will Result in War: Some Long-Term Predictions from th system. A useful theory of the causes of war should be able to predict the conditions under which war is highly likely or unlikely. It should also be able to identify the factors that put pairs of states or systems at risk for war. The two major transition theories that are the focus of this book—p