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Titlebook: Risk Theory; Rational Decision in Nicholas Rescher Book 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022

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发表于 2025-3-21 16:25:39 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
书目名称Risk Theory
副标题Rational Decision in
编辑Nicholas Rescher
视频video
概述Offers a novel approach to risk management.Presents a philosophically guided theory of risk assessment.Includes an explanation of the role of choice and uncertainty in risk
丛书名称SpringerBriefs in Philosophy
图书封面Titlebook: Risk Theory; Rational Decision in Nicholas Rescher Book 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
描述Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management,  this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice..Topics in this  work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author‘s LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer..
出版日期Book 2022
关键词Mathematics of Risk; Philosophy of Risk; Risk Assessment and management; Uncertainty of Risk; Rational C
版次1
doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78502-4
isbn_softcover978-3-030-78501-7
isbn_ebook978-3-030-78502-4Series ISSN 2211-4548 Series E-ISSN 2211-4556
issn_series 2211-4548
copyrightThe Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
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SpringerBriefs in Philosophyhttp://image.papertrans.cn/r/image/830725.jpg
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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78502-4Mathematics of Risk; Philosophy of Risk; Risk Assessment and management; Uncertainty of Risk; Rational C
发表于 2025-3-22 10:22:11 | 显示全部楼层
Chance and Likelihood,Our dealings with reality often face forks in the road, branching points where—for ought one can tell—matters can eventuate one way or another. Will it rain or not? Will the dam hold? Will Smith’s preferred horse win the race? Will John propose to Mary? Throughout our concerns such questions about alternatives abound.
发表于 2025-3-22 15:46:54 | 显示全部楼层
Uncertainty,Uncertainty is the bane of risk management. And in the prevailing conditions of this world there is unfortunately no escaping it. The prospect of unforeseeable catastrophe—natural disasters, wars, pandemics, market panics, technological disasters—is beyond our control, and only so little can effectively be done to cushion their impact.
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Managing Risk and Uncertainty,Let it be that $300 is be distributed in a box having with three compartments (A, B, C). First you get to choose one of four distributions. And then you get a blind choice of one compartment, whose contents you will then receive. Which distribution would you choose?
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Abnormal Situations and Eccentric Measurements,cceptable and others as altogether unrealistic. And to fit our assessment into the range of afforded by the standard machinery of risk calculation, two eccentric quantities must accordingly be introduced, catastrophic (−∞) outcome yields and virtually zero (∈) probabilities. Let us consider this more closely.
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