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Titlebook: Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions; Modelling, Statistic Hans-Martin Krolzig Book 1997 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997 business

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书目名称Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions
副标题Modelling, Statistic
编辑Hans-Martin Krolzig
视频video
丛书名称Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
图书封面Titlebook: Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions; Modelling, Statistic Hans-Martin Krolzig Book 1997 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997 business
描述This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco­ nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap­ proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con­ sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier­ tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschun
出版日期Book 1997
关键词business cycle; calculus; econometrics; emperical business cycle; forecasting; integration; modeling; regre
版次1
doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-51684-9
isbn_softcover978-3-540-63073-9
isbn_ebook978-3-642-51684-9Series ISSN 0075-8442 Series E-ISSN 2196-9957
issn_series 0075-8442
copyrightSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997
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The Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model,e fundamental assumptions constituting this class of models. The discussion of the two components of MS-VAR processes will clarify their on time invariant vector auto-regressive and Markov-chain models. Some basic stochastic properties of MS-VAR processes are presented in .. Finally, MS-VAR models a
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The BLHK Filter,ilities. In the MS-VAR model the state vector .. is given a structural interpretation. Thus an inference on this unobserved variable is of interest for its own sake. However, the filtered and smoothed state probabilities provide not only information about the regime at time ., but also open the way
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation,he maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters . of an MS-VAR model is considered. The aim of this chapter is (i.) to provide the reader with an introduction to the methodological issues of ML estimation of MS-VAR models in general, (ii.) to propose with the EM algorithm an estimation technique
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Model Selection and Model Checking,olved questions arising in empirical investigations with MS-VAR models concern the issue of model specification. In . we discussed the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of MS-VAR models. In the literature (cf. .. [1993]) it has been . that standard asymptotic theory holds:.
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Comparative Analysis of Parameter Estimation in Particular MS-VAR Models,and its conceptional differences to the EM algorithm have been discussed. In this chapter, we will focus on the technical aspects of estimation of the VAR coefficients under the various types of restrictions..
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Extensions of the Basic MS-VAR Model, system is autonomous, .. no exogenous variables enter into the system, (ii.) the regime-dependent parameters depend only on the actual regime but not on the former history, and (iii.) the hidden Markov chain is homogeneous, .. the transition probabilities are time-invariant. As we have seen in the
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