Titlebook: Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics; EBEB 2014 Adriano Polpo,Francisco Louzada,Marcelo Lauretto Conference proceedings 2015 Springer Inte

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Rosineide F. da Paz,Ricardo S. Ehlers,Jorge L. Bazánearchers in the fields of environment, disaster risk reduction, and climate change studies.  The book will provide them with a good idea of the current trend of research in the field and will furnish basic know978-4-431-54691-7978-4-431-54252-0Series ISSN 2196-4106 Series E-ISSN 2196-4114

序曲

Pudendal-Nerve

尾巴

噱头

Estrogen

Fretful

音乐会

A Maximum Entropy Approach to Learn Bayesian Networks from Incomplete Data,y. We argue that high probability is necessary but not sufficient in order to obtain good estimates. We present an approach based on maximum entropy to address this problem and describe a simple and effective way to implement it. Experiments show that our approach produces significantly better estimates than the most commonly used method.

出血

A Bayesian Approach to Predicting Football Match Outcomes Considering Time Effect Weight,ties of winning the tournament assuming different values for the weight attached to the experts’ information and different choices for the sequence of weights attached to the previous observed matches. The methodology is illustrated on the 2010 Football Word Cup.

HAVOC

A Weibull Mixture Model for the Votes of a Brazilian Political Party,in 50 % of the votes in the first round was estimated. The results show that only few components are needed to describe the votes obtained in this election. Finally, we found that the probability of obtaining 50 % of the votes in the first ballot is increasing along time. Future developments are discussed.