| 书目名称 | Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries | | 副标题 | Insights from a Stat | | 编辑 | Ewa Tabeau,Anneke Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote | | 视频video | | | 丛书名称 | European Studies of Population | | 图书封面 |  | | 描述 | Information on future mortality trends is essential forpopulation forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, andmany other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, thisvolume contains contributions to the theory and practice offorecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances indeveloped countries of Western Europe. .In this context techniques from mathematical statistics andeconometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. Thenaive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give asgood a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requirescareful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historicalconditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted thatscientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality,perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than theoutline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. Thedecision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historicaldata (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain aforecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmentalelements, with the quality of the latter depend | | 出版日期 | Book 2001 | | 关键词 | Ageing; Public Health; epidemiological; epidemiology; public health policy; statistics | | 版次 | 1 | | doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6 | | isbn_softcover | 978-90-481-5660-3 | | isbn_ebook | 978-0-306-47562-7Series ISSN 1381-3579 Series E-ISSN 2542-8977 | | issn_series | 1381-3579 | | copyright | Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2001 |
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发表于 2025-3-21 17:14:57
