Titlebook: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education; Laxman Bokati,Vladik Kreinovich Book 2023 The Edi

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People Select Approximately Optimal Alternativest the alternative with the largest gain. In practice, instead, we make a random choice, with probability decreasing with the gain—so that it is possible that we will select second highest and even third highest value. Specifically, we use the so-called softmax formula. Interestingly, the same formul

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People Make Decisions Using Heuristics. IIccording to the traditional economics, the price that a person is willing to pay for an item should be uniquely determined by the value that this person will get from this item, it should not depend, e.g., on the asking price proposed by the seller. In reality, the price that a person is willing to

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Few-Parametric Spatial Models and How They Explain Bhutan Landscape Anomalyn many other application areas, we encounter two types of situations. In some cases, we have a small number of observations; in this case, it is important to extract as much information from these observations as possible. In other cases, we have a large number of observations—in such cases, we need

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Laxman Bokati,Vladik KreinovichAnalyzes the general problem of decision making under uncertainty.Demonstrates the applications to geosciences, teaching, and computing.Provides the main ideas of decision making

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Studies in Systems, Decision and Controlhttp://image.papertrans.cn/d/image/264207.jpg

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Undergraduate Topics in Computer Science situation, then they should select the alternative that maximizes the product of their utilities. This recommendation was derived by Nobelist John Nash. In this chapter, we describe this idea, and we also provide a new (simplified) derivation of this result, a derivation which is not only simpler—i

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Iain T. Adamson BSc, MSc, AM, PhDerent items. So, to estimate the value of an alternative, we need to estimate the value of each item, and then combine these estimates into a single number characterizing the alternative as a whole. In the previous chapters, we described how people estimate the value of each item. In this chapter, w

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Iain T. Adamson BSc, MSc, AM, PhDtimate time passed since distant events, and overestimate time passed since recent events. There are several explanations for this “telescoping effect”, but most current explanations utilize specific features of human memory and/or human perception. We show that the telescoping effect can be explain