| 书目名称 | China‘s Macroeconomic Outlook |
| 副标题 | Quarterly Forecast a |
| 编辑 | CMR of Xiamen University |
| 视频video | |
| 概述 | A quarterly forecast and analysis report on China‘s macroeconomic outlook, based on China‘s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM).High reference value for entrepreneurs to project China‘s macroecono |
| 丛书名称 | Current Chinese Economic Report Series |
| 图书封面 |  |
| 描述 | .Owing to the decline in domestic investment and trade with the rest of the world, China’s real GDP in the first half of 2012 was lower than expected. Based on forecasts from China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), the slowdown of the growth rate in 2013 will be moderate as a result of modestly proactive macro control policy. GDP would grow at 8.01 percent in 2012, and then rebound to 8.29 in 2013; CPI would fall to a 2.9 percent in 2012, and then would pick up to 3.27 percent in 2013. In the scenario in which the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area worsened in the second half of 2012, real GDP is forecast at 7.71 percent for 2012 and 7.5 percent for 2013. Even if the external economic environment becomes worse, China’s growth is expected to stay at above 7.5 percent, which might be a steady growth rate for the near future. If China plans to achieve a higher growth rate by launching the “2 trillion massive investment package”, the growth rate of GDP could be increased to 8.25 and 8.86 percent in 2012 and 2013 with a risk of inflation and worsening economic structure. .The policy implication from CQMM: on one hand the Chinese government should be able to maintain the growth |
| 出版日期 | Book 2013 |
| 关键词 | China‘s Macroeconomic outlook; Macroeconometric model; Macroeconomic projection; Policy simulation; Stru |
| 版次 | 1 |
| doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36923-0 |
| isbn_softcover | 978-3-642-43756-4 |
| isbn_ebook | 978-3-642-36923-0Series ISSN 2194-7937 Series E-ISSN 2194-7945 |
| issn_series | 2194-7937 |
| copyright | Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 |
发表于 2025-3-21 20:07:46
