Titlebook: Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370; Sam Davey,Neil Gordon,Jason Williams Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2016 Commonwealth of Australia 2016 Particle F

荨麻

Introduction,On 7 March 2014 at 16:42, Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 departed from Kuala Lumpur (KL) International Airport bound for Beijing. There was a total of 239 persons on board (227 passengers and 12 crew).

旋转一周

滔滔不绝地说

The Bayesian Approach,Bayesian inference methods [9] provide a well-studied toolkit for calculating a distribution of a quantity of interest given observed evidence (measurements). As such, they are well-suited for calculating a probability distribution of the final location of the aircraft given the data available from the Inmarsat satellite communication system.

TERRA

Aircraft Prior Based on Primary Radar Data,The Bayesian approach described in the previous chapter is a recursive method that calculates the posterior state distribution at each measurement time from a distribution at the previous measurement time.

hypertension

Measurement Model, Satellite Communications,The Bayesian filter discussed in Chap. . relies on knowledge of three probability density functions: the state prior distribution, the state stochastic model, and the measurement conditional probability density.

不溶解

CANE

ventilate

Particle Filter Implementation,Solution of the Bayesian estimation method described in Chap. . requires one to recursively integrate the aircraft dynamics pdf (.) and multiply it by the likelihood (.).

谦卑

Validation Experiments,The variable rate model developed for MH370 was validated by analysing data from a collection of flights where the true aircraft location was known; we refer to these as validation flights. A total of six validation flights were used for testing.

易碎

Application to the MH370 Accident,The previous chapters have constructed a Bayesian method for estimating commercial aircraft trajectories using models of the information contained in satellite communications messages and of the aircraft dynamics. This chapter applies the estimator to the accident flight.