| 期刊全称 | Applications of Systems Thinking and Soft Operations Research in Managing Complexity | | 期刊简称 | From Problem Framing | | 影响因子2023 | Anthony J. Masys | | 视频video | | | 发行地址 | Details ‘real world’ applications of Systems Thinking and Soft OR to support various domains.Shows that many situations consist of complex systems of changing problems that interact with each other, w | | 学科分类 | Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications | | 图书封面 |  | | 影响因子 | .This book captures current trends and developments in the field of systems thinking and soft operations research which can be applied to solve today‘s problems of dynamic complexity and interdependency. Such ‘wicked problems’ and messes are seemingly intractable problems characterized as value-laden, ambiguous, and unstable, that resist being tamed by classical problem solving. Actions and interventions associated with this complex problem space can have highly unpredictable and unintended consequences. Examples of such complex problems include health care reform, global climate change, transnational serious and organized crime, terrorism, homeland security, human security, disaster management, and humanitarian aid. Moving towards the development of solutions to these complex problem spaces depends on the lens we use to examine them and how we frame the problem. It will be shown that systems thinking and soft operations research has had great success in contributing to the management of complexity. . | | Pindex | Book 2016 |
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Front Matter |
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Abstract
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,Introduction, |
Anthony J. Masys |
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Abstract
Today we find ourselves confronted with problems of dynamic complexity and interdependency. Such ‘wicked problems’ and messes are seemingly intractable and are characterized as value-laden, ambiguous, and unstable, that resist being tamed by classical problem solving. Actions and interventions associated with this complex problem space can have highly unpredictable and unintended consequences. Examples of such complex problems include health care reform, global climate change, transnational serious and organized crime, terrorism, homeland security, human security, disaster management, and humanitarian crisis management. Moving towards the development of solutions to these complex problem spaces depends on the lens we use to examine them and how we frame the problem. Systems Thinking and Soft Operations Research has had great success in contributing to the management of complexity. This book captures current trends and developments in the field of systems thinking and soft operations research to support problem framing.
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Using Systems Modelling to Examine Law Enforcement Collaboration in the Response to Serious Crime |
John Brocklesby |
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Abstract
This contribution looks at how systems modelling can help collaborative law enforcement agencies think about how they might improve their capacity to deal with the rapidly escalating complexity that is associated with transnational and/or organized crime. Some collaborative law enforcement arrangements have existed for many decades, however in recent years more have been established both within and across national jurisdictions. From a complexity-management perspective, such systems make a good deal of sense. However they are very often beset with a wide range of organisational problems which have to be carefully managed. Against this background, the chapter argues that there is a need for theory that can account for the complexity of the challenge and point towards more holistic and integrated solutions. Drawing upon examples representing three distinct levels of collaboration, i.e. the operational taskforce, the national multi-agency system, and the regional cooperation agency, the paper argues that systems-based modelling tools have much to offer.
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Managing Complexity in Organizations Through a Systemic Network of Projects |
Domenico Lepore,Angela Montgomery,Giovanni Siepe |
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Abstract
. has become one of the most important issues for economists and managers over the last twenty years. The reason for the increasing importance of this issue is related to the exponential growth of interconnections and interdependencies that has arisen in contemporary society and organizations. Organizations often struggle to adapt their management methods to the shift towards increased complexity. We present a management methodology, ‘The Decalogue’, that is a systemic approach for managing complexity in organizations and supply chains through focusing on . (Theory of Constraints) and the understanding and . (Theory of Profound Knowledge). Through the application of this methodology, an organization can transform its operations from a traditional hierarchy (silo mentality) to an organizational model of a systemic network of projects that is appropriate for operating and adapting within a complex reality. We conclude that the approach we present, specifically applied to organizations with a well defined goal, is a “systemic” approach focussing on constraint management and control of variation. This systemic approach leverages the intrinsic process and project-based nature of the wor
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Family of Related Systemic Elements (FoRSE™) Matrix: Big(ger) Picture Thinking and Application for B |
Blane Després |
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Abstract
We can best pursue problem framing and solutions by understanding their relationship to the organization’s purposes. Part of the process of problem framing involves distinguishing between problems and symptoms. In this chapter I present big(ger) picture thinking as a best fitting framework via the FoRSE™ Matrix system, and clarify big(ger) picture thinking and little window glimpses. Four types of thinking add to the complexity. The main outcome of big(ger) picture thinking is the best understanding of the organization, its purpose and direction, and the ripple effects of its queries and decision-making as these all relate to being. Benefits include a practical model for leaders to understand the complexity and ripple effects of their in/decisions, to have a comprehensive schema of the critical parts, or system elements, of their problems or questions, and greatly improved, sustainable directions.
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Abstract
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Disentangling Wicked Problems: A Reflexive Approach Towards Resilience Governance |
Hanneke Duijnhoven,Martijn Neef |
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Abstract
This chapter discusses the complex challenge of dealing with diverging threats in our contemporary hyper-connected society. In recent decades, resilience has become a key notion that has been adopted by policy-makers and academia to embrace the changing risk our society faces. Yet the traditional, modernist rational logic that dominates approaches to resilience management, does not fit with the problem at hand. In this chapter we argue that societal challenges in the current era require a paradigm shift: we need novel perspectives on how to approach the governance of risks and the societal implementation of resolutions. We will argue that the recent focus shift from . to . in many disaster management communities is an important aspect of this paradigm shift, but that it is by itself not enough to deal with the ‘wickedness’ of today’s complexity.
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Post-disaster Reconstruction—What Does It Mean to Rebuild with Resilience? |
Kristen MacAskill,Peter Guthrie |
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There is a growing awareness that we live in times of uncertainty and change; this is fuelling increased consciousness of city and community vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards. In recent years the concept of resilience—the ability to both withstand and recover from a “shock”—has become a core term in international, national and local policy for urban development. Because resilience has been adopted in a range of decision-making contexts, various interpretations of the concept are potentially confusing for those attempting to adopt it in their own decision making. To help provide clarity, this chapter presents a framework that captures different interpretations of resilience as a concept to frame decisions for disaster risk reduction in our communities and cities. This framework acknowledges that resilience is a trans-disciplinary concept; its purpose is to help create a coherent understanding of how sector-specific applications of resilience lie within a broader conception of resilience in disaster risk management. More specifically, the framework is used to examine how resilience is considered in the post-earthquake reconstruction of infrastructure networks in Christchu
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‘Black Swans’, ‘Dragon Kings’ and Beyond: Towards Predictability and Suppression of Extreme All-Haza |
Anthony J. Masys,Eugene Yee,Andrew Vallerand |
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Abstract
Shocks to regional, national and global systems stemming from natural or man-made hazards can have dramatic implications. Disasters such as Katrina (2005), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Alberta (Canada) Floods (2013), and Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) are examples that highlight the vulnerability of communities to natural hazards and the crippling effect they have on the social and economic well-being. Through foresight and scenario planning, such events can be expected but can they be predicted to support resilience and enable suppression of the impacts? With consideration of emerging and systemic risks and inherent uncertainty associated with surprising events, planning for and managing risk, crisis and disasters requires understanding of the outliers that challenge our resilience. ‘Black Swans’ represent the unpredictable. They represent “… our misunderstanding of the likelihood of surprises” (Taleb in The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable, .). A ‘Black Swan’ is described by Taleb (.) as that which is an outlier, that which is outside the realm of regular expectations which carries with it an extreme impact such as natural disasters, market crashes, catastrophic failure of
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“Unproblemising” the Technical Complexity of Shelter in Post Disaster Reconstruction |
Regan Potangaroa |
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Abstract
The provision of shelter after a disaster is a complex problem that manifests itself in all post disaster contexts. Its intractable and ‘wicked’ nature means that donors and agencies involved in humanitarian aid see it as “easy to get into, but hard to get out of”. There are seemingly no one-off, “silver bullet” solutions and where such “cookie cutter” solutions are applied, their weaknesses soon become apparent to all involved. While most lessons learnt and evaluations have pointed towards better coordination, stronger leadership, more innovation and integration of service delivery there remains little appreciation of the role of technical complexity in resolving the apparently ‘intractable’ problem of shelter provision. This chapter uses a case study approach to identify and propose an approach that is not evident in the current literature. The technical complexity of shelter provision is seemingly relegated out of the decision making. However, the presented case study and experiences from the shelter sector when re-framed suggest another reality; that the technical resolution can untangle parts of its social complexity that can foster solutions that were prior to that considered
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Supporting Intelligence Analysis Through Visual Thinking |
Steve Strang,Anthony J. Masys |
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Today’s threat landscape is characterized by uncertainty and complexity stemming from the interconnectivity and interdependence of the hyper-connected world (Masys et al. in Procedia Econ Finance 18:772–779, .). Threats stemming from terrorism and transnational crime are more diverse and interconnected thereby calling upon an expansion of the analytic envelope and vocabulary of intelligence. This complex problem space is value-laden, open-ended, multidimensional, ambiguous and unstable and can be labeled as ‘wicked and messy’. Events such as 9/11 highlight “surprising events” that reflect an organizations inability to recognize evidence of new vulnerabilities or the existence of ineffective countermeasures (Woods in Resilience engineering: concepts and precepts, .). This necessitates the requirement to readjust to their existence and thereby the need to consider the extremes (Taleb in The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable, .), to challenge dominant mindsets and explore the space of possibilities. In Limits of Intelligence Analysis, Heuer (Orbis 49(1):75–94, .) argues how limitations in perception, perspective, and resistance to change, as well as understanding and com
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The Benefits of a Systems-Thinking Approach to Accident Investigation |
Simon A. Bennett |
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The origins of disaster are complex. Systems-thinking offers the best chance of identifying contributory factors. Two disasters are discussed with reference to actor-network theory (ANT) which, thanks to its ‘principle of generalised symmetry’, supports holistic, high-fidelity analysis. It is suggested that the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 disaster originated in a mélange of factors, from cognitive bias to the economic organisation of commercial aviation. There are overheads associated with the methodology. Systems-thinking-informed investigations are intellectually demanding. Further, they are potentially time-consuming and costly. Liberal terms of reference are a prerequisite. Vested interests that seek to constrain, obstruct or undermine the investigation must be challenged. During the early stages of his investigation into the 1989 Dryden aircraft accident, The Honourable Mr Justice Virgil P. Moshansky and his team were subjected to what he later described as intimidation. Because of the inevitable clamour for answers, systems-thinking-informed investigations may be unpopular with politicians, constituents, managements, shareholders, regulators, journalists (whose disaste
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Systems Theory as a Foundation for Discovery of Pathologies for Complex System Problem Formulation |
Polinpapilinho F. Katina |
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Abstract
This chapter articulates a set of systems theory-based pathologies that act to limit performance of complex systems. In response to the common mantra that problem formulation is the most important activity in successfully dealing with complex system problems, this research elaborates on the utility of systems theory as the basis for problem formulation through the discovery of system pathologies. Pathologies are taken as circumstances that act to limit system performance or lessen system viability (continued existence) and as such they reduce the likelihood of a system meeting performance expectations. As an extension of contemporary developments in systems theory, this chapter is focused on three primary objectives. First, systems theory is examined to generate a comprehensive set of 45 principles, laws and concepts that explain system behavior and performance. Second, a set of systems theory-based pathologies that can be explained as deviation in application of systems theory (i.e., lack of use or violation) are articulated. Third, the chapter discusses implications of the developed pathologies for practitioners faced with the task of formulating complex system problems. The chap
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Soft Social Systems and Shocks: An Experiment with an Agent Based Model |
Leena Ilmola,Nikita Strelkovsky |
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Abstract
In this chapter, we will elaborate on the challenge of uncertainty emerging from increasing complexity and how to deal with that in decision making. We will present an example of a decision making tool that supports the analysis of the potential futures and provides a decision maker with an idea of the proper actions to be taken.
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System Failure? Why Humanitarian Assistance Can’t Meet Its Objectives Without Systems Thinking—and W |
Simon Levine |
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Abstract
Thinking in terms of systems is surely as old as any other kind of intelligent contemplation, but even if the creation of ‘systems thinking’ as a separate intellectual discipline is much more recent, academic approaches to analysing ‘soft systems’ have been around for at least two generations. The fact has to be faced, though, that the impact of more structured approaches to systems thinking have been extremely limited, with most of the world stubbornly continuing to address the obvious failings of the various systems that we need by tinkering with a few of the components, despite the evidence of decades that such approaches inevitably disappoint. Systems theorists have perhaps not helped as much as they could, being seen too easily as creating as esoteric jargon that seeks to describe in opaque terms what was already abundantly clear to everyone anyway—but not really offering a way forward that anyone connected with the problem could actually find helpful. (More recently complexity theorists seem to be repeating the same path.) This chapter describes a system (emergency response to droughts in the Horn of Africa) that was clearly not functioning well in the eyes of those who were
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Using First Nations Systems Thinking to Operationalize Sustainable Development |
Ivan Taylor |
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In the following chapter, a systems thinking approach is described that reflects a Canadian First Nation’s view of sustainable development. This approach is operationalized using a System Dynamics model, called Mini-World, developed by Harmut Bossel. The primary stocks in the Mini-World model were converted to represent the quality of The Land, The People and The Economy which is terminology to which the First Nation can relate. Bossel’s concept of “orientors” is used to translate the stocks in the model into traditionally and culturally specific values in which the First Nation is particularly interested. It is hoped that this translation of the measures, from a classical System Dynamics model into concepts the First Nation can relate to, will lead to acceptance and use of this operationalization of their systems thinking.
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发表于 2025-3-21 19:27:09
