Titlebook: Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories; Edward E. Leamer Book 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 Econometrics.Economic Growth.Forecas

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Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDPnew factories. If we all do our postponing at the same time, we will probably have a recession, since the workers and capital that are normally used to produce these investment items may be idled, until we finish our waiting.

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Inflation and Interest Ratesur economic interrelations with other countries. In that regard, the future is quite likely to be different from the past. As I write these words at the end of 2006, a huge US external deficit that has persisted for almost a decade and an apparently over-valued dollar constitute the greatest threat to the stability of the US economy.

FLINT

Recession Comparison Charts, and a few others too..By the way, if you are going to read passively, this material will be hopelessly boring, and you might as well skip to the next chapter. You will find this more interesting if you think of yourself as Sherlock Holmes, trying to gather all the facts to figure out which culprit is guilty of causing each recession.

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Idleness Storiesion to the priests, and pray for a better outcome. When industrial workers lose their jobs, they have a choice: they can visit the temple of the market, offer a donation to the economists, and pray for a better outcome; or they can visit the temple of government, offer a donation to the politicians, and pray for a better outcome.

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The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Datathe weather, even though the forecasts regularly precede the weather. Nor does the flowering of plants cause Summer to arrive, even though Summer has always been preceded by a period of exceptional plant flowering that poets call the “Spring.”

FLIC

Savings and Investmentases. That is savings. When we put that money into a savings account, it will find its way to the investors who use the loans to finance the creation of new productive assets such as new factories, office buildings, and shopping centers. That is investment.