Titlebook: Judgment in Predictive Analytics; Matthias Seifert Book 2023 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to S

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International Series in Operations Research & Management Sciencehttp://image.papertrans.cn/j/image/501390.jpg

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Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models (Reprint)election against a standard algorithm based on information criteria. We also examined the efficacy of a judgmental model-build approach, in which experts were asked to decide on the existence of the structural components (trend and seasonality) of the time series instead of directly selecting a mode

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Effective Judgmental Forecasting in the Context of Fashion Products (Reprint)is of practical importance in this setting. Our goal is to investigate what type of decision support, in particular historical and/or contextual predictors, should be provided to human forecasters to improve their ability to detect and exploit linear and nonlinear cue-criterion relationships in the

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Talent Spotting in Crowd PredictionRecent research on superforecasting has demonstrated the importance of individual, persistent skill in crowd prediction. This chapter takes stock of skill identification measures in probability estimation tasks, and complements the review with original analyses, comparing such measures directly with

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Performance-Weighted Aggregation: Ferreting Out Wisdom Within the Crowdn sharing and signal strength while cancelling out biases and noise. The resulting judgment is more accurate than the average accuracy of the individual judgments—a phenomenon known as the .. Although an unweighted arithmetic average is often sufficient to improve judgment accuracy, sophisticated pe

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The Wisdom of Timely Crowds expect that as time passes, and information relevant to the event resolution accrues, the accuracy of individual forecasts will improve. For example, we expect forecasts about stock prices on a given date to be more accurate as that date approaches, or forecasts about sport tournament winners to be

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