Titlebook: Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America; Christian Dayé Book 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and Th

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Handbook of Marriage and the Familyom the perspective of a Soviet strategist, and estimate the number of atomic bombs that had to be delivered on target to considerably damage the US economy. Unlike later studies, this first Delphi combined the use of both quantitative and qualitative research techniques, thus allowing for a mediated interaction between the participating experts.

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Alberto Apostolico,Maxime Crochemoreic modeling. The chapter thus first briefly sketches the development of game theory and then proceeds to describe the four rounds of political gaming that were carried out by RAND’s Social Science Division.

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,The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963–1964,ordon did not consider the principles that Helmer and Nicholas Rescher, in “On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences,” had proposed a few years earlier. While the long-range Delphi study became the paradigmatic case and thus influenced the use of the technique for the decades to come, its methodological shortcomings quickly became apparent.

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