| 期刊全称 | A General Theory of Evidence and Proof | | 期刊简称 | Forming Beliefs in T | | 影响因子2023 | Kevin M. Clermont | | 视频video | | | 发行地址 | Tells how to conceive of and account for the various kinds of uncertainty encountered in the process of evidential proof.Uses psychology to explore how humans settle on truth and uses logic to establi | | 学科分类 | Law and Philosophy Library | | 图书封面 |  | | 影响因子 | .This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability’s product rules, which calculate a conjunction’s likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably...Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged...In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a th | | Pindex | Book 2024 |
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发表于 2025-3-21 18:55:16
