STERN
发表于 2025-3-23 09:48:22
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THROB
发表于 2025-3-23 16:34:08
Indifferent to Consequences call with Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, captured on the White House recording system, Johnson worried that the Marines would end up “fighting with the Vietcong and really starting a land war.” He summed up the discussion with what must be one of the most tragic remarks ever uttered by an Am
quiet-sleep
发表于 2025-3-23 18:27:17
The Swans to Worry About Are Graygy—in national security as well as areas like finance—has most to fear from the sudden and the unexpected. A black swan is, at its core, a shock, a surprise. It is an “outlier,” Taleb writes, “as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to
burnish
发表于 2025-3-24 01:42:27
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手势
发表于 2025-3-24 06:16:33
What You Don’t Know Can Destroy You: Ignorance and Correlated Riskers were misguided by wishful thinking, overconfidence, groupthink, the skewing effect of personality, and much more. The case studies of these companies have at least one more important thing in common: Senior leadership lost touch with what was going on in one or more of their business units. Seni
FATAL
发表于 2025-3-24 07:58:45
Risk, Incentives, and Culturens up against a number of powerful realities of human organizations, from personalities to cognitive biases. Behavior is a function of many variables; avoiding risk is one, but there are many others that can be equally powerful. In many ways the essential story of the financial crisis can be boiled
滔滔不绝地说
发表于 2025-3-24 14:41:58
Outcome Assessment of the Emerging US National Security Strategy strategic approach, which could be called “selective engagement.” It first describes this strategic posture, and then informs its analysis with two previous case studies of similar strategies: the gradual British recognition of a need to wind down their empire, and the Nixon Doctrine. The discussio
过度
发表于 2025-3-24 18:53:37
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exclusice
发表于 2025-3-24 19:33:26
Managing Uncertaintyne of radical uncertainty. It is an environment with a dozen major potential threats, challenges, opportunities, and demand signals, arrayed in a complicated mosaic without clear implications for the size, structure, or technology of a modern military. It is a context of profound ambiguity whose fut
Comedienne
发表于 2025-3-25 01:36:47
Book 2016ks the way risk contributes to strategy, with insights relevant to practitioners and scholars in national security as well as business. Over the past few years, the concept of risk has become one of the most commonly discussed issues in national security planning. And yet the experiences of the 2007