mortality 发表于 2025-3-21 17:46:14

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Organization 发表于 2025-3-21 21:10:39

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BARK 发表于 2025-3-22 04:29:16

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ANN 发表于 2025-3-22 08:15:15

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EXCEL 发表于 2025-3-22 10:26:26

Working with the Forecast Data,ents’ probability density/distribution function, and the methods include non-parametric techniques, as well as the fitting of parametric distributions, including distributions which allow for asymmetry in the individual’s underlying assessments.

MITE 发表于 2025-3-22 14:55:18

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Surveys Versus Models?,s the forecast horizon shortens. This is suggested by the fixed-event nature of the SPF histograms. The models’ . forecasts of uncertainty are more in line with actual uncertainty as indicated by . RMSEs.

remission 发表于 2025-3-22 20:22:21

Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy,ases expectations data can be used to capture ‘anticipatory effects’ (as in the fiscal foresight literature) and counter the non-fundamentalness problem. Uncertainty can also be used in place of first-moment expectations in VARs to analyse the relationship between uncertainty and the macroeconomy.

OWL 发表于 2025-3-22 23:02:32

Postscript, as well as to evaluate the impact of various policy scenarios. In recent times a key challenge has been understanding the impact of ‘unconventional’ monetary policy. Such policies are intended to ensure more expansionary policy than could be achieved by cuts in base rates when rates are at or close to ‘the lower bound’.

易发怒 发表于 2025-3-23 01:58:01

2662-6594 ation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations..978-3-319-97223-7Series ISSN 2662-6594 Series E-ISSN 2662-6608

合唱团 发表于 2025-3-23 06:04:28

Assessing the Accuracy of the Probability Distributions,ertainty that characterized output growth and inflation. Rather than evaluating the whole densities, specific regions of interest can be considered, and this is illustrated. Finally, some scoring rules might be better suited than others when, as here, the densities are presented in the form of histograms.
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查看完整版本: Titlebook: Macroeconomic Survey Expectations; Michael P. Clements Book 2019 The Editor(s) and The Author(s) 2019 Time series econometrics.Economic fo