neutral-posture
发表于 2025-3-26 22:09:39
The Hierarchical Bayesian Approach, at this time qualify as true Bayesian analyses. The requirements as introduced in Chapter 2 are few — a prior probability distribution that is determined before the data are collected and a model probability distribution. What we need to do for the credibility problem is identify just where these two items come in.
Insufficient
发表于 2025-3-27 03:40:07
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right-atrium
发表于 2025-3-27 07:52:58
Bayesian Statistical Analysis,t expresses our current relative opinion as to the likelihood that various possible values of . are the true value. For additional discussion of the merits of expressing uncertainty by probability see Lindley (1982 and 1987). This is called the prior distribution as it represents the state of our knowledge prior to conducting the experiment.
王得到
发表于 2025-3-27 11:29:50
Book 1992hose issues but rather to demonstrate that within the realm of actuarial science there are a number of problems that are particularly suited for Bayesian analysis. This has been apparent to actuaries for a long time, but the lack of adequate computing power and appropriate algorithms had led to the
打火石
发表于 2025-3-27 17:22:24
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使迷醉
发表于 2025-3-27 19:26:37
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EXALT
发表于 2025-3-27 22:24:29
Introduction,tistics text. On the other hand, “Bayesian” statistics, a mode of inference based on Bayes’ Theorem, has attracted a small group of passionate supporters. The debate continues with papers such as “Why Isn’t Everyone a Bayesian?” (Efron, 1986) drawing numerous comments and letters.
gratify
发表于 2025-3-28 05:33:03
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匍匐
发表于 2025-3-28 08:40:48
Miho Suto,Keiko Kasamatsu,Takeo Ainoyahis distribution such as the mean and variance. Of greatest interest is the mean, which (under squared error loss) would be our best guess as to what the future claims might be. For the most part we will ignore the economic variables, or equivalently, assume they are accounted for outside the credibility analysis.
HARD
发表于 2025-3-28 12:37:06
The Credibility Problem,his distribution such as the mean and variance. Of greatest interest is the mean, which (under squared error loss) would be our best guess as to what the future claims might be. For the most part we will ignore the economic variables, or equivalently, assume they are accounted for outside the credibility analysis.